Here is a Bob Rose update on this week’s weather and an outlook into next week.
Summary
- Occasional light rain is forecast to continue through Monday evening.
- Additional rain amounts will average around a tenth of an inch.
- The sky is forecast to clear late Monday night through Tuesday morning.
- Sunny conditions will continue the remainder of the week and through the weekend.
- A freeze is forecast across the Hill Country and low-lying areas of Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
- Milder readings will return late week and through the weekend.
Discussion and Outlook
Welcome to winter, or at least a good of taste of winter. Sunday’s strong cold front brought with it the coldest air our region has seen since last February. Temperatures at midday Monday were in the 40s across the entire region! In addition to the cold, widespread light to moderate overrunning rains developed behind the cold front Sunday night into Monday morning. Totals since Sunday morning have averaged around a half inch across the Hill Country, and between a quarter and a half inch across Central Texas. Areas south of Interstate 10 missed out of the rain once again, as most rain amounts here have averaged less than a tenth of an inch.
Sunday’s cold front is now located in the western Gulf of Mexico. A chilly dome of Canadian high pressure centered over the southern Rockies is slowly sinking south into Texas, bringing more unseasonably cold air. A thick layer of clouds cover the southern two-thirds of the state thanks to a trough of low pressure hanging back over northwestern Mexico. The trough is pulling warm Gulf air north over the chilly air at the surface, resulting in clouds and light to moderate showers. Forecasts call for occasional periods of light rain to continue Monday afternoon into Monday evening. The rain looks to diminish from west to east late evening and towards midnight as the overrunning pattern weakens. Additional rain amounts through midnight are forecast to average around a tenth of an inch.
Windy to breezy conditions are forecast to continue this afternoon, Monday night, and Tuesday as the Canadian air mass sinks south into the state. For Monday afternoon, expect northerly winds at 15-25 mph, with occasional gusts to 35 mph. For Monday night and Tuesday, expect northerly winds at 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.
Clouds are predicted to clear from northwest to southeast late Monday night through Tuesday morning as the upper trough exits to the northeast. A mostly sunny sky is forecast to develop by Tuesday afternoon. Sunny and dry weather is forecast to continue Wednesday through Friday as a stable ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of the Southwestern U.S.
Unseasonably cold temperatures can be expected this afternoon through Wednesday, followed by a return of milder readings Thursday and Friday. Do note freezing temperatures are forecast for the Hill Country and low-lying areas of Central Texas Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
Here’s a breakdown of forecasted temperatures:
Tuesday
Lows Tuesday morning will include the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas, and the low to mid-40s across the costal Plains. Highs Tuesday will be in the mid-50s.
For the trick or treaters Tuesday evening, dry and chilly weather is forecast. Temperatures at 6 pm are forecast to be in the low 50s. Readings are predicted to drop through the mid and upper 40s through the evening. Winds should be in the range of 5-10 mph.
Wednesday
Lows Wednesday morning will include the upper 20s to low 30s across the Hill Country, the mid-30s across Central Texas, and the upper 30s across the coastal plains. Highs Wednesday will generally be in the upper 50s
Thursday
Lows Thursday morning will include the upper 20s to low 30s across the Hill Country, the mid-30s across Central Texas, and the upper 30s across the coastal plains. Highs Thursday will be in the mid and upper 60s.
Friday
Lows Friday morning will be in the mid and upper 40s. Highs Friday are forecast to be in the low and mid-70s.
For this weekend and next week, sunny and dry weather is forecast as the storm track lifts back up to the north. High temperatures are predicted to be near 78-82 degrees this weekend through next Tuesday. Highs the second half of next week are forecast to be in the low and mid-70s. Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s to low 60s.
The next chance for rain isn’t expected to occur until sometime late next week or the following weekend.
Tropical Weather Update
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas of disturbed weather, but neither system poses any threat to the western Gulf of Mexico.
The first area of disturbed weather is over the eastern Caribbean Sea where a trough of low pressure is producing
A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward during the next several days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form late this week when the system reaches the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 60 percent chance for development over the next seven days.
The second area of disturbed weather is located across the southwestern Atlantic, about 100 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas. Here, an area of low pressure was producing an area of disorganized showers. This system is moving into an area of strong upper-level winds and dry air, and the chances of it becoming a short-lived tropical storm are decreasing. The low is expected to move slowly northwestward today and then turn northward and northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday. NHC forecasters are giving this system just a 10 percent chance for tropical development over the next seen days.
West Texas Weather Outlook
- Sunny and dry weather is forecast this afternoon through Friday.
- Chilly temperatures Monday through Wednesday will trend milder Thursday and Friday.
Time Change Weekend Coming Up
This coming weekend, daylight saving time will end and we will be moving back to Central Standard Time. Clocks will officially “fall back” an hour at 2 am, Sunday, Nov. 5.
Bob
Thanks,
Gary Teeler, CEM, CPP
Captain – Support Services | LCRA Police Department